澳大利亚煤炭搏得关注，但印度尼西亚对中国的煤炭出口降幅最大

AUSTRALIAN COAL WINS ATTENTION, BUT INDONESIAN EXPORTS TO CHINA HAVE FALLEN THE MOST

　　Overview

　　概述

　　There has been much talk in recent weeks and months about Chinese coal policy, particularly with regard to imports from Australia, after anecdotal evidence suggest Chinese importers have been told to shun Australian thermal coal.

　　最近一段时间，有关中国煤炭政策的讨论甚嚣尘上，尤其是从澳大利亚进口的煤炭。此前坊间传闻中国进口商要绕开澳大利亚热能煤。

　　But what does the data say?

　　但事实胜于雄辩！

　　Chinese coal imports were certainly down in October, falling to 13.7 million tonnes from 18.7m in September and 25.7m in October 2019. This marks the sixth consecutive month in which coal imports have been lower this year than last.

　　10月份，中国煤炭进口量确实有所下降，从9月1870万吨降至1370万吨，而2019年同期进口量为2570万吨。这标志着今年中国煤炭进口量连续六个月低于去年同期。

　　The drop in imports are not just limited to Australia. In fact, both in percentage and absolute terms, imports from Indonesia fell by more than those from Australia in October. Imports from the former fell by 75.4% (-8.6 million tonnes), whereas those of Australian coal fell by 60.4% (-3.8 million tonnes).

　　煤炭进口量的下降不仅仅针对澳大利亚。事实上，在10月份，从印度尼西亚（以下简称“印尼”）进口煤炭的降幅，无论是绝对值还是百分比都超过了澳大利亚。从印尼进口的煤炭量下降了860万吨，降幅75.4%；而从澳大利亚进口的煤炭量下降了380万吨，降幅60.4%。




　　As Mongolia rise to top spot, seaborne transportation falls

　　随着蒙古国升至供应国榜首，海运量在下降

　　Adding to the headache for shipping is the fact that Mongolia and Russia took over as top coal exporters to China. In fact, the drop in imports from Indonesia and Australia means that Mongolia took the top spot as China’s main coal supplier in October, with imports totalling 3.9 million tonnes, 20.4% higher than in October 2019. Russia jumped to second spot at 3.5 million tonnes (+28.3%). Mongolian coal exports to China are not transported by sea and the majority of Russian coal arrives by rail, further lowering the tonne mile demand generated by Chinese coal imports, which is already low due to the short sailing distances from Australia and Indonesia.

　　更让航运业头疼的是，蒙古和俄罗斯接力成为中国最大的煤炭供应国。从印尼和澳大利亚的煤炭进口量下降，事实上意味着蒙古国在10月份成为中国最大的煤炭供应国，总进口量为390万吨，较2019年同期增长20.4%。俄罗斯跃居第二位，总进口量为350万吨，较2019年同期增长28.3%。由于中国距离澳大利亚和印尼的航程较短，中国进口煤炭的吨英里需求已经很低，而蒙古国向中国出口的煤炭无需海运，俄罗斯大部分煤炭通过铁路运抵，这进一步降低了中国进口煤炭产生的吨英里需求。

　　Surprise? Australia best performing in the first ten months of the year

　　惊讶吗？澳大利亚今年前十个月煤炭出口较往年表现是最好的

　　Despite all the chatter, between January and October, Chinese coal imports from Australia have been record high at 77.4 million tonnes, a 7.6% increase from the same period last year. This is the equivalent of 775 Post-Panamax loads (100,000 tonnes). Russia is the only other major country to have seen growth in the first ten months of this year, at 29.5m tonnes (+1.3% from 10M 2019) and overtaking Mongolia for third spot, though it still has a long way to go to catch up with Indonesia or Australia.

　　尽管各方议论纷纷，但从1月到10月，中国从澳大利亚进口的煤炭量仍创历史新高，为7740万吨，较去年同期增长7.6%。这相当于775艘100,000载重吨的超巴拿马型船总载运量。今年前10个月，俄罗斯是其他（向中国出口煤炭的）主要国家中，唯一一个增长的国家，为2950万吨，较2019年同期增长1.3%，超过蒙古国成为第三位，不过要赶上印尼或澳大利亚仍然长路漫漫。




　　Despite a 14.4% drop in coal imports from Indonesia in the first ten months of the year, it remains by far the largest origin for Chinese coal imports. Between January and October, China imported 110.2 million tonnes of coal from Indonesia, down 18.5m tonnes (185 Post-Panamax loads).

　　尽管今年前10个月从印尼进口的煤炭量下降了14.4%，但印尼仍是中国进口煤炭的最大来源地。今年1月至10月，中国从印尼进口煤炭1.102亿吨，同比减少1850万吨，相当于185艘超巴拿马型船的总载运量。

　　With new deal imports will continue to come by sea, but sailing distances will fall

　　新交易落实后，进口将继续通过海运，但航程将缩短

　　With rumours rife about substitutes for Australian coal, a deal was recently announced between China and Indonesia. China is said to have agreed to buy around USD 1.47 billion worth of coal from Indonesia in a three-year time frame. The Memorandum of Understanding is light on details and several key details are yet to be agreed upon, such as the actual volumes to be exported in 2021 and beyond, and a price index that can be negotiated regularly.

　　关于替代澳大利亚煤炭的传言满城风雨，而最近中国和印尼宣布了一项协议。据称，中国已同意在三年内从印尼购买价值约14.7亿美元的煤炭。《谅解备忘录》披露的细节不多，尚有几个关键细节有待商榷，如2021年及之后的实际出口量，以及可以定期谈判的价格指数。

　　The deal must be put into context. In the three years between 2017 and 2019, China imported USD 20.3 billion worth of coal from Indonesia, an average of USD 6.8 billion a year. At just USD 1.47 billion, this deal formalises only a small proportion of this deal and is a long way from making up for lost volumes from Australia.

　　这笔交易必须考虑到背景情况。在2017年至2019年这三年间，中国从印尼进口价值203亿美元的煤炭，平均每年68亿美元。此官方协议涉及14.7亿美元，仅使一小部分交易正式化，但要填补澳大利亚的缺口仍需时日。

　　“Though still light on details and highly symbolic, this MoU is a clear signal from China that it is strengthening its ties with its other major coal suppliers, and that it will not suddenly return to large-scale buying of Australian coal when the calendar shows 2021,” says Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst.

　　BIMCO首席航运分析师Peter Sand先生表示：“尽管《谅解备忘录》仍缺乏细节，但具有很强的象征意义，它是中国发出的一个明确信号，中国正在加强与其他主要煤炭供应商的联系，到2021年，中国不会突然恢复对澳大利亚煤炭的大规模采购。”。

　　Despite the limited scope of the deal, it brings both good and bad news for shipping. The good news is that exports from Indonesia travel by sea, rather than by land, as is the case for coal arriving from Mongolia and Russia. The bad news is that the sailing distance is short, affecting tonne mile demand.

　　尽管交易范围有限，但它给航运带来的是喜忧参半。好消息是，印尼的出口货物通过海运，而不是像从蒙古和俄罗斯进口煤炭那样通过陆路运输。坏消息是航程很短，削弱了吨英里需求。

来源：BIMCO上海